Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
