Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
